EUROMAIDAN UKRAINE: ONLINE AUDIO & VIDEO

***** ALERT ... THIS POST HAS BEEN UPDATED ...

CLICK HERE

http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com/2013/12/dec-11-2013-live-video-from-ukraine.html

~ ~ > OLD POST - note that some links may be broken:

#ЄвроМайдан #Україна #EuroMaidan #Ukraine

UA online streams - 20131201 @ 11:40 EST

- BEST BETS ... HOT LINKS:


5 Канал (5 Kanal) =
http://5.ua/live
Телеканал Новин «24» (Telekanal Novyn «24») =
http://24tv.ua/home/showOnline.do
Радіо Свобода (Radio Svoboda - RFE/RL) =
http://radiosvoboda.org/media/videotube/42.html
Громадське ТБ (Hromadske TV - Public Broadcasting) =
http://hromadske.tv
Еспресо ТБ (Espresso TV) =
http://espreso.tv/stream
ТВі (TVi) =
http://tvi.ua/stream

Also, check out these other sources ...

- USTREAM channels ...
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/spilno-tv
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/maidan-lviv
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/КПІ-live
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/tdanylenko
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/aronets
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-action-spilno-tv
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/Євромайдан-Львів-hromadske-tv
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/snitsa
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/Громадське
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/channel/tsn-ua


- YOUTUBE CHANNELS ...
5 Канал (5 Kanal) =
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=girrrlTQzbg
http://www.youtube.com/user/5channel
Громадське ТБ (Hromadske TV - Public Broadcasting) =
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5Uj8MKCn6g
http://www.youtube.com/user/HromadskeTV
Еспресо ТБ (Espresso TV) =
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZ1s1bj6AZE
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMEiyV8N2J93GdPNltPYM6w?feature=watch
- UKRAINE TV CHANNELS:
http://newsone.ua/
http://zik.ua/tv/teleprograma/

EUROMAIDAN UKRAINE: NEWS via TWITTER

News from Ukraine via Twitter

The December 11th event during Ukraine's EuroMaidan protests was indeed exciting and historic.

In the early morning hours, peaceful patriotic protesters amassed to defend their right to demonstrate against the authoritarian and destructive Yanukovych and Party of Regions regime in Ukraine by fending off pro-regime riot police and mercenary "titushky" thugs.

If anyone out there has not yet traded in their horse & buggy for an automobile, Twitter is simply the best thing out there to keep up with breaking news from Ukraine.

1) Try this search for relevant and timely tweets …

http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Євромайдан&src=typd&f=realtime

If you follow the right people, you will get it all.

2) Start by using these hashtags …

#ЄвроМайдан
#EuroMaidan
#Ukraine
#UkraineProtest
#450UA 

… and before you know it, you will be swimming in Ukraine's news, information, analysis, opinion and - yes - trash, before you know it.  With some practise, you will be able to filter out the noise and be happy that you are as up to date as you can ever hope to be.

3) Some Twitter accounts worth checking out:

John Baird = @HonJohnBaird
BBC News (World) = @BBCWorld
Yuri Bender = @YuriBender
Brian Bonner = @BSBonner
Euromaidan Lviv = @euromaidanlviv
EuroMaydan = @Euromaydan_eng
Kateryna Kruk = @Kateryna_Kruk
Taras Kuzio = @TarasKuzio
Kyiv Post = @KyivPost
John McCain = @SenJohnMcCain
Christopher Miller = @ChristopherJM
Modern Ukraine = @Modern_Ukraine
New Eastern Europe = @NewEastEurope
Vasyl Pawlowsky = @uamuzik
RFE/RL = @RFERL
UANews4ENMedia = @UANews4ENMedia
UCCLA = @UCCLA
UkeTube = @UkeTube
Ukrainian Updates = @Ukroblogger
Voice of America  = @chastime

Dec. 15, 2013: LIVE VIDEO from UKRAINE

For BREAKING NEWS via VIDEO from UKRAINE ...

Youtube and Ustream were the top picks for live coverage of the major #EuroMaidan event in #Ukraine in the early morning hours of December 11th. Peaceful patriotic protesters amassed to defend their right to demonstrate against the authoritarian and destructive regime of "president" Yanukovych and his Gang of Regions by fending off pro-regime riot police and mercenary "titushky" thugs.

---> A great new first-of-its-kind initiative is the grassroots webcasting channel called Hormadske TV - broadcasting in ENGLISH.  The feed is up from about noon to midnight (Ukraine time) and sometimes longer - as it was last night.  The simultaneous translation available on this channel is at least adequate and often very good ...

Hromadske TV - English version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaQLlo0pXdI

---> As for Ukrainian-language coverage, here are the best live feeds, based on last night's breaking news coverage …

1) Espresso TV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZ1s1bj6AZE

2) Telekanal Novyn 24
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIJL2v6RSxU

3) 5 Kanal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=girrrlTQzbg

4) Hromadske TV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpL2zOPa588

5) Radio Svoboda (Camera#1 & Camera#2)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znb9sqODXfE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgncZLHng0U

6) TVi (no Youtube stream)
http://tvi.ua/stream

7) UKRSTREAM (also Ustream feed)
http://ukrstream.tv
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/euromajdan

---> If the Youtube links change, get the website feed and updated Youtube links here …

1) Espresso TV
http://espreso.tv/stream
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMEiyV8N2J93GdPNltPYM6w

2) Telekanal Novyn 24
http://24tv.ua/home/showOnline.do
http://www.youtube.com/user/news24

3) 5 Kanal
http://5.ua/live
http://www.youtube.com/user/5channel

4) Hromadske TV
http://hromadske.tv/episode/128
http://www.youtube.com/user/HromadskeTV

5) Radio Svoboda
http://www.radiosvoboda.org/media/videotube/42.html
http://www.youtube.com/user/RadioSvobodaOrg

---> Some good but sporadic raw live feeds - often in a "commando" style - can be found here …

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/spilno-tv
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/aronets
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/mustafa-nayyem
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/tdanylenko
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-action-spilno-tv
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/Громадське

Dec. 14, 2013: Ukraine’s Revolution – Mychailo Wynnyckyj's update

Ukraine's Revolution - Update 14 Dec 2013

By Mychailo Wynnyckyj
Kyiv, Ukraine

Yesterday afternoon, for the first time since I began calling Kyiv home 12 years ago, I seriously considered evacuating my family from Ukraine’s capital. In the end, my brave wife and I decided not to leave Kyiv – we spent the afternoon today on Independence Square, and walking around the city center, observing and talking to the many “guests” who had come to visit the capital.

I have always believed Kyiv to have massive potential as a tourist city, but (naively?) I thought this potential would be realized by tourists coming from other countries. Today, the number of guests from Ukraine’s regions on the streets of the capital was unprecedented. Independence Square was filled with Ukrainian-speaking westerners: people who have travelled to Kyiv from Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and smaller cities in the west of the country to support the Euromaidan. Meanwhile, just outside the barricades, groups of Russian-speaking young men from Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and other eastern cities roamed the streets, often making fun of the Euromaidan slogans, but clearly uncomfortable, and worried that someone might recognize them.

Besides language, the main difference between the political tourists from east and west is that the latter have come to Kyiv voluntarily, in their own cars, or on busses that their local communities had organized for them; their eastern counterparts have been bussed in by the Party of Regions (under threat of losing their jobs - according to multiple reports), and have received instructions to not to leave the pro-Presidential demonstration on European Square without permission. The fact that many in fact did leave was obvious: firstly, political tourists from the eastern regions were readily recognizable in Kyiv (please excuse the somewhat discriminatory observation), and secondly, by the time the final speaker on the Party of Regions program, Parliamentary faction leader Alexander Yefremov, took to the stage on European Square at approx. 4pm, the square was half empty.

The program of the Party of Regions demonstration was somewhat comical. I watched the very long (20 minutes) and boring speech by Parliamentarian Oleh Tsariov on Ukraine’s First National TV channel (the state-owned broadcaster). He attempted to ridicule the Euromaidan demonstrators’ chant “Khto ne skache, toy Moskal”, but many in the crowd misunderstood, and actually started jumping. The chant that Tsariov was ridiculing originates from the “Ultras” wing of the Ukrainian National Football fan club, and roughly translates as “who is not jumping is a Russky” (“Moskal” is a term that connotes Russians, but is about as demeaning as “Yankee” or “Newfee”). During the original Euromaidan demonstrations (prior to November 30), the chant was popular among students, and playfully used by them as a way of keeping warm. Clearly, some Party of Regions Parliamentarians missed the young peoples’ humour. Indeed the Russian identity seems to be no laughing matter to some of them: immediately after declaring his support for the President’s gradual Eurointegration strategy, one Party of Regions Parliamentarian actually encouraged the demonstrators to chant “Putin! Putin!”…

Even less humourous was the scandalous lie proclaimed at today’s pro-Presidential demonstration by Prime Minister Azarov. After explaining (yet again) to the completely uninterested people standing in front of the stage, that the country’s economy would have experienced massive losses if Ukraine had signed the Free Trade Agreement with the EU in Vilnius, he went on to proclaim that many in Ukraine would like to see a visa-free regime with Europe, but this is impossible because… (get this!) in order to simplify border-crossing procedures, the EU has demanded that Ukraine legalize same-sex marriages. Journalists immediately contacted the EU ambassador in Kyiv, Jan Tombinski, who clarified that no such requirement has ever been tabled in any negotiation. The very concept of linking visa regimes to national legislation on what constitutes marriage is ridiculous. Indeed, one could dismiss Azarov’s statement as a joke, if it had not been proclaimed at a very public demonstration, and if the person speaking did not occupy the second highest government post in Ukraine…

Under the circumstances, one might be tempted to believe that the leadership of Ukraine has simply lost its mind. The reality is that the regime has begun to crack. A classic division between “doves” and “hawks” seems to have formed around Yanukovych, and in my opinion this is both a sign of the beginning of the end of the regime, and a sign of extreme danger. On the one hand, there are thousands of political tourists in Ukraine’s capital – some here voluntarily, to make a statement; others bussed in by Ukraine’s political parties. On the other hand, the Ministry of the Interior has mobilized its forces (regular police, crowd control troops, “Berkut” riot-police) throughout the country, and has brought all possible manpower to the capital. The situation is tense, and is likely to develop during the next few days along one of two scenarios.

The “doves’ scenario” seems to involve the Interior Ministry forces maintaining a distance from demonstrators: a “no man’s land” on the 200 meter stretch of thoroughfare that separates Independence Square (the Euromaidan) from European Square (the Party of Regions’ demonstration) was established this morning, but many simply walked around the police cordon using side streets where police presence was minimal. If peace can be maintained again tomorrow, according to the doves, the President’s image and negotiating position will be strengthened on Monday.

Today, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General announced that four mid-level government officials will be prosecuted for ordering the violent clearing of the Euromaidan students by riot-police on November 30. Deputy Secretary of the National Security Council Sivkovych, Kyiv city administrator (acting mayor) Popov, Kyiv police chief Koryak, and his deputy Fedchuk have been chosen to play the role of sacrificial lambs for the regime. Clearly, as with the inaction of police today, the Prosecutor General’s press conference was targeted at those who would doubt the peaceful intentions of the regime, and its willingness to resolve the current crisis using “dovish” methods.  

But there are several problems with the doves’ scenario. Firstly, punishing mid-level officials is unlikely to be enough of a concession for the protesters on Independence Square – many are calling for the personal prosecution of Berkut police officers who beat students, and more importantly, few believe that the four identified officials would have ordered the November 30 attacks without sanction from Ukraine’s highest authorities. Indeed according to a leaked report from the prosecutor’s office, acting Kyiv mayor Popov testified to investigators that he received orders by telephone from Security Council Secretary Kliuyev (a member of Yanukovych’s inner circle) to set up the huge Christmas tree on Independence Square that night, and that given the accompanying statement that Sivkovych was to command the operation, this instruction was clearly understood to be an order to clear the area of demonstrators.

The other problem with the doves’ scenario is that it is based on Yanukovych actually caring about his image – both domestically and internationally. After the events of December 11, when the regime attempted to forcefully remove the demonstrators from Independence Square while high ranking foreign policy officials from the EU and US were in Kyiv, there is little doubt that Yanukovych cares little about what the West thinks of him. With respect to domestic supporters, whatever legitimacy the Party of Regions’ demonstration today may have been intended to show, was completely nullified by the countless TV interviews (broadcast on practically every station) with the regime’s political tourists – none of them could explain why they had come to Kyiv, and many openly admitted that they were paid to come.

Finally, even if Yanukovych keeps his word, and the moratorium on the use of force that he promised yesterday, is maintained this weekend, in the medium term, a peaceful resolution to the current crisis can only come about through negotiations, and that process will require significant further concessions from the regime. Ukraine’s President is unlikely to be prepared to make the concessions that will inevitably be required of him, e.g.: resignation of the Azarov government, prosecution of Interior Minister Zakharchenko (a close personal friend of the President), enacting Constitutional changes that will limit the President’s powers, etc. So the “dove’s scenario” may merely delay the inevitable: a bloody crackdown.

It would seem that the “hawks” within the President’s inner circle would like nothing better than to see an immediate end to the demeaning (to the regime) demonstrations. They have certainly encouraged Yanukovych to pull enough troops into Kyiv to quash the protest: approximately 5000 riot-police (the entire complement of “Berkut”, “Tiger”, “Sokil” and other elite units still loyal to the regime – squads from western Ukraine have refused to travel to the capital); approximately 15 thousand Interior Ministry troops (trained for crowd control) from all over the country; additional law enforcement and traffic police from the eastern and southern regions. It is questionable whether these police forces will actually follow orders if commanded to attack peaceful demonstrators, but if a riot between Euromaidan and Party of Regions protestors were staged (and duly filmed for domestic and international TV audiences), the likelihood of obedience would be high.

Clearly, if this scenario is to be played out, it would have to happen quickly. Because Kyiv-based police have had personal contact with protesters during the past 3 weeks, their loyalty under questionably legal circumstances is not likely. The energy of the protests on Independence Square (particularly tonight, during the concert by Ukraine’s most popular rock band “Okean Elzy”) is infectious. Stories of protestors feeding hungry police, warming them, exchanging phone numbers, etc. are widespread, and have certainly increased the likelihood of Kyiv-based police switching sides if called upon to act forcefully against the Euromaidan. If the “hawks’ scenario” is to be realized, it will have to happen during the next few days, so that the “revolutionary disease” that has affected the capital’s police does not spread to other forces that have been brought to Kyiv, and are still loyal to the regime.

The main problem with the “hawks’ scenario” can be summed up in two words: “then what?” A crackdown on the current protests will inevitably only result in more demonstrators descending on Kyiv. Indeed, each time the regime has resorted to violence during the past few weeks, the scale of civil disobedience has expanded. So, if escalation of protests is to be avoided, Yanukovych would have to resort to declaring a state of emergency (martial law) in order to fully quash the crisis. But such a move would require both loyalty from Parliamentarians in the Party of Regions (possibly problematic given defections that occurred after the November 30 violence), and from the Ukrainian Army. Enforcing a state of emergency exclusively with Interior Ministry troops would almost certainly be impossible. Whether the loyalty of the Army could be counted on is unknown.

The US Secretary of Defense made a telephone call last Thursday to Ukraine’s Defense Minister, and today, US Senator John McCain, ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, arrived in Kyiv. Clearly, the US administration is very concerned about the prospects of the “hawks’ scenario” being enacted. If the Ukrainian Army becomes involved in enforcing a state of emergency, inevitably there will be defections (particularly in the western and central regions). If things get out of hand, Ukraine’s three eastern oblasts (Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk) and the autonomous republic of Crimea, could “invite” Russian troops to help enforce order. According to this nightmare scenario armed conflict would erupt along a north-south line stretching from Poltava to Zaporizhzhia, and then turning west to Odesa. Such a division of the country would inevitably degenerate into a Syria-style civil war – on the door step of the European Union!  

Tonight, notwithstanding the fact that power was cut to our neighborhood (Podil district) for short periods twice, and that the same occurred in the area around Independence Square, I am optimistic that the “doves” are winning over the “hawks”. Yesterday, the last of the 9 demonstrators, arrested on clearly trumped up charges after the December 1 violence, was released from confinement. During the “round table” discussions, in the presence of Ukraine’s archbishops, former Presidents, opposition leaders, and high-ranking government officials, Yanukovych promised a moratorium on the use of force against demonstrators. Today, the regime announced its first concessions: four government officials were charged with ordering the attack on peaceful student protests on November 30 (clearly not enough, but a first step towards an admission of guilt).

Last night, while I was giving an informal lecture at “Euromaidan University”, I was interrupted by singing: outside, approximately 200 Interior Ministry troops had gathered on the small square near Dynamo stadium for a change of shift. They stood at attention in full riot gear, and sang the Ukrainian national anthem. That very fact gives one hope that at a crucial moment (if it comes), these young men will remember that they swore an oath to serve the Ukrainian people, not the country’s questionably legitimate leadership.

In the meantime, as everyone in Kyiv hopes for the best, the stand-off between the protestors on Independence Square and the regime continues with no end in sight. The Euromaidan is in no hurry to disperse, and many of the Party of Region’s demonstrators who stood for several hours today listening to their political leaders, ended the day enjoying the concert by Okean Elzy on the territory of their supposed opponents. There, the political tourists from the south and east of Ukraine were fed and entertained. Maybe tomorrow, some of them will switch sides. But even if that does not happen, on Monday they will return to their regions with a very positive impression of the Euromaidan, and they may just tell their compatriots at home that the information being fed to them by Russian and regional media (to say the least) is inaccurate.

One final note to those who are still confused about what exactly has prompted millions of Ukrainians to take to the streets in protest. KyivPost Deputy Editor Katya Gorchinskaya captured the essence of the Euromaidan in her short article “Birth of a Nation” http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/birth-of-a-nation-333459.html .  Originally, this started with a small protest against the Yanukovych government’s change of heart regarding the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. Since then, things have changed dramatically: the regime has attacked peaceful demonstrators in the center of Ukraine’s capital three times (Nov. 30, Dec. 1, Dec. 11). This fact has consolidated Ukraine’s people in protest: people want personal dignity, rules-based government, and peace. They don’t believe that their current government (President, executive, and Parliament) can secure these simple demands, and therefore they must go. It’s really that simple…

The only problem is that the government does not want to go. And it’s resorting to all possible methods to at least remain in office, if not in power. From their side it too is really that simple. So, the stand-off continues.

God help us!

Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

[ "Ukraine's Revolution - Update 14 Dec 2013" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy), which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by ‪#‎Euromaidan‬ and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in ‪#‎Ukraine‬ for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Check out Mychailo's most recent posts in this blog's archive … http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com ]

Dec. 12, 2013: Ukraine’s Revolution – Trying to get into Yanukovych’s head …

Ukraine’s Revolution – Trying to get into Yanukovych’s head …

By Mychailo Wynnyckyj
December 12, 2013
Kyiv, Ukraine

The question on the minds of many in Ukraine (and I suspect around the world) today is “why?” Why did the Yanukovych regime choose to attempt to clear the demonstrators from Kyiv’s city center specifically during the early hours of 11/12/13? This is not merely a numerological question. Given the presence of Catherine Ashton (EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs) and Victoria Nuland (US Assistant Secretary of State) in Ukraine’s capital last night, what was Yanukovych thinking when he ordered riot police onto the Euromaidan? Didn’t he realize that the timing of this police action would irreversibly and finally alienate him from the West? Couldn’t he have waited one day until the two guests departed? Doesn’t he realize that the current social mood in Ukraine is such that every action by the police will inevitably lead to even greater numbers of protesters on the streets of Kyiv? Why is Ukraine’s President being deliberately provocative?

One possible answer is that he is simply crazy; he has lost all touch with reality; his advisers are incapable or unwilling to influence his decisions which in turn are becoming increasingly irrational. If this explanation is to be accepted, then it must also be said that the irrational Yanukovych is simultaneously a fantastic actor. His television appearance together with Ukraine’s three former Presidents yesterday did little to raise doubts as to Yanukovych’s mental stability – although it certainly raised multiple questions (including among the ex-Presidents) as to his choice of policy priorities.

Another answer to the puzzle of Yanukovych’s strange decision-making that is gaining some credence in Ukraine is based on a belief in Russian infiltration of Ukraine’s corridors of power. Specifically, according to this theory, the November 30 violent attack by Berkut riot police on students who were winding up their pro-EU demonstration in Independence Square was not actually ordered by the legitimate Ukrainian government, but rather by a rogue commander following orders from Moscow. In the same vein, the savage beatings by riot-police of demonstrators and journalists on December 1 in front of the Presidential Administration was actually a Russian intelligence agency operation (this theory is apparently supported by the fact that Russian television channels broadcast images of the street violence from inside the Presidential Administration building). Accordingly, since Russia has everything to gain from Yanukovych’s complete isolation from the West, it was Putin’s agents who ordered a repeat of violence in Kyiv at the most inopportune time for Yanukovych – last night.

It should be noted that the Russian conspiracy theory is convenient to Ukraine’s government. Indeed in his opening remarks before the Cabinet of Ministers meeting this morning, Prime Minister Azarov alluded that “someone deliberately tried to discredit the government” by ordering the November 30 attacks on the Euromaidan students. By promising an investigation into the event, Azarov conveniently distanced himself and Yanukovych from responsibility. With respect to the December 1 savagery against journalists, the Prime Minister has not suggested blame, claiming that opposition-funded street fighters were responsible for provoking the riot-police, but that police also overstepped their bounds.

If the “strings from Russia” theory is to be taken seriously, and Yanukovych has in fact lost control of the decision-making process within his own government, one must ask why he simply does not publicly admit this problem? If there are “moles” in the President’s administration, would it not be better to “out” them sooner, rather than later? Conspiracy theorists would argue that this would make the President look weak, and given Yanukovych’s authoritarian nature, all mention of even the possibility of a break in the hierarchy of command is taboo.

The conspiracy theory in its pure form is probably far-fetched, but it may also contain some grains of truth. Firstly, it is quite likely that Yanukovych’s decisions are heavily influenced by Russia. Putin clearly promised the Ukrainian President significant financial support (and likely electoral support in his 2015 re-election campaign) in exchange for not signing the Association Agreement with the EU in Vilnius. According to rumors circulating throughout Kyiv, during their meeting in Sochi on Friday, Yanukovych and Putin penciled a significant economic rescue package for Ukraine, but the Russian President added a condition: all protests in Kyiv must be cleared before the December 17 official signing date. For this reason, Yanukovych, in a hurry to clear the protesters from Independence Square, ordered riot police into the streets of Kyiv last night – ignoring the presence of his western diplomatic guests. If this theory is true, another attempt to clear the demonstrations is sure to come tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

However, it seems somewhat simplistic to boil down explanations of seemingly irrational decisions taken by Ukraine’s President to an infantile desire to please Russia. Yanukovych is an authoritarian leader: even superficial analyses of his public appearances and career path make this clear. Furthermore, he is a materialist whose criteria for value judgments are based on wealth and/or power. As he stated publicly during his debate with Lithuanian President Grybauskaite at this autumn’s Yalta European Strategy conference, Yanukovych believes Ukraine to be “caught” between two very large economic behemoths – the EU and Russia – and he defines his responsibility as President as that of “broker”. In other words, internally, he needs to regularly demonstrate his own power (over oligarchs, over government employees, over citizens) while externally, he must regularly try to manoeuver his country within the minimal geopolitical space relegated to Ukraine by its neighbors. Put more simply, at the moment, Russia has promised more than the EU, so today he is leaning eastward; if the EU offers more tomorrow, tomorrow he will lean westward. This is the essence of the geoeconomic dance once practiced by Kuchma, and (badly) repeated by Yanukovych.

Viktor Yanukovych’s authoritarian materialism contrasts sharply with the “soft power” of European foreign policy, and the values-based demands of the protesters on the streets of Kyiv (to live in a rules-based society where individual dignity is respected). For a materialist authoritarian, the reality that I witnessed during 5 afternoon hours on Independence Square today are simply incomprehensible: thousands of people (most of them of working age – joined by some students, and minimal numbers of pensioners), without receiving any commands, seemingly without appointed managers, cooperated in rebuilding the barricades that had been removed last night by the regime around Independence Square, and in clearing the area of snow and ice. To even suggest that these people were paid for their work is to be deeply offensive to them. Amazingly, many worked without even looking into the faces of their compatriots – they simply did what needed to be done, and each person seemed to know exactly what needed to be done without asking. “How can this be?” would ask a bewildered Yanukovych…

Today, in the wake of last night’s police crackdown, thousands of drivers throughout Ukraine have volunteered their cars to drive compatriots to Kyiv from the regions – no one is paying for their gas, and no one is commanding them to drive. They are simply coming – many driving all night. “Why?” might query a confused Yanukovych… Because they, and their compatriots believe that their dignity has been has been violated! And that is more important than pleasing the boss, or earning an extra few hundred/thousand hryvnia during the next days/weeks. But that answer is beyond comprehension for a materialist authoritarian like Yanukovych.

The contrast between the worldviews of the protesters and the “values” of the regime is particularly salient to the negotiations that have been called for by Ukraine’s President in his a TV address tonight. A first “round table” session with opposition leaders is likely to begin tomorrow. For Yanukovych, these negotiations will amount to a haggling session with each side vying for positional power. He will therefore be prepared (possibly) to sacrifice Interior Minister Zakharchenko, or even Prime Minister Azarov, but only if his own image of a powerful “father of the nation” (valid primarily in his own mind) does not suffer as a result. Indeed, I would argue that it was for the sake of his own self-image that Yanukovych needed to demonstrate his power on Independence Square last night - to launch the negotiations that both the US and EU are insisting upon, from a position of strength.

For the Euromaidan protesters negotiations are a necessary evil: few have any real desire to protest indefinitely, particularly given the reality of an oncoming winter. But at the end of the day, many demonstrators will see any political deal as a sell-out of their values. Unfortunately, in my opinion, this will be the case even if non-political civil society leaders are invited as empowered participants of the planned round-table discussions. The very context of these negotiations is antithetical to the values of the protesters. Haggling over money, power, government posts, and resignations has little in common with the demands of the Euromaidan demonstrations, and the regime side is simply incapable of understanding the protesters’ post materialist paradigm. That may mean continued stand-off…

Perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself here. There exists one wild card factor that may have a much more immediate effect on how events transpire in Ukraine than the evident conflict of worldviews between the regime and the people. Specifically, I am referring to the role that will be played in coming days by police and Interior Ministry forces in containing and/or disbanding the protests in Kyiv. During last night’s operations it was very obvious that the Berkut riot police deployed in the city center did not originate from Kyiv. Tactically they were unprepared: they failed to block side entrances into the main streets where barricades had been set up, and they were encircled on several occasions by demonstrators simply because they were unfamiliar with the geography of the city center. Forces consisting of Kyiv-based police, conscripted Interior Ministry troops, and Berkut riot police from the regions are by no means monolithic. Eyewitnesses reported today that Kyiv-based police actually turned around to face the Berkut riot police imports during one of the stand-offs with demonstrators early this morning in Ukraine’s capital. Can other, similar, incidents of disobedience by police be expected during the next few days? One would certainly hope so…

Ukrainian history is filled with examples of uprisings. A close friend of mine, observing the activity on Independence Square during the past few weeks (and particularly today) suggested that Ukrainians may have some sort of genetic ability to collectively organize into self-sufficient camps under extreme conditions – an ability firmly rooted in the history of Cossack uprisings in Ukraine. Unfortunately, this same history does not inspire optimism with respect to the outcomes of the uprisings for the rebels. In most cases, these uprisings (particularly against irrational and/or oppressive authoritarian rulers) have ended in spoils being distributed among political actors during the resolution phase of the uprising, with minimal benefit to the people. Hopefully, this modern uprising will prove an exception to the historical rule.

God help us!                                 

Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

[ "Ukraine’s Revolution – Trying to get into Yanukovych’s head …" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy), which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by ‪#‎Euromaidan‬ and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in ‪#‎Ukraine‬ for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Check out Mychailo's most recent posts in this blog's archive … http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com ]

Dec. 11, 2013: Ukraine’s Revolution – The Regime Strikes Back

Ukraine’s Revolution – The Regime Strikes Back

By Mychailo Wynnyckyj
December 11, 2013
Kyiv, Ukraine

During the very early hours of the morning of 11/12/13, several thousand riot police and Interior Ministry troops attacked the barricades set up 2 weeks ago by protestors around Kyiv’s Independence Square. According to official reports, 10 police officers were injured. Obtaining an exact count of casualties from the protestors’ side is impossible, but it is safe to say that when the dust settles, numbers will number in the hundreds.

As night turned to day, interior ministry troops attempted to storm Kyiv city hall. Three buses pulled up to the front doors of the building, but the troops inside were immediately blocked by a massive crowd. Protesters poured water from fire hoses through second floor windows onto the busses – in -10 degree Celsius weather. When two busses of police reinforcements attempted to pull up to the city hall building, a massive crowd of protesters blocked their path, and forced a retreat.

At 10 am, several hundred interior ministry troops continued to maintain a cordon around the Trade Unions building where opposition leaders had previously set up their base of operations. The scene was surreal. On one side of the police cordon, several thousand people filled the square in front of the stage, from where the singer Ruslana continued to call for peaceful protest: “Every person on Maidan is responsible for Ukraine’s image in the world! Let them hear us – We are here!” On the other side of the police line, bumper-to-bumper busses blocked Kyiv’s main thoroughfare, providing cover for an almost empty street where city workers slowly removed one of the protesters’ make-shift barricades. Meanwhile, approximately 300 meters to the west, the tense face-off between crowds and riot police continued in front of the city hall building.

At 10:07 the three busses with interior ministry troops retreated from their positions in front of city hall, pressured to do so by the peaceful crowd shouting “go home!” and “together we are a force”. At approximately the same time, at the other end of Khreshchatyk Street, the troops forming a police cordon separating Independence Square from the Trade Unions building also retreated into a line of busses lined bumper-to-bumper across the street in the place where protesters had previously set up a barricade. At 10:43 the busses began to pull away. Clearly the Interior Ministry troops are under orders to clear demonstrators only under the cover of darkness.

At midnight last night it looked like the stand-off would continue peacefully for some time. The previous night, protestors were pushed back by police to their original barricades around the perimeter of Independence Square (established prior to last weekend’s mass demonstrations), and although they were regularly subjected to psychological warfare tactics, the Euromaidan looked like it would hold. During the day, the protestors were visited by dignitaries from both the EU and the US – a move that was officially censured by both the Russian Duma, and Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, as an act “intervention in the internal affairs” of Ukraine. Grandstanding, pressure tactics, and posturing seemed to be everyone’s preferred strategy. Few expected the regime to break the peace so soon, and certainly not at a time when Baroness Catherine Ashton and Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Newland were in Kyiv.

Yesterday, in a grand show of apparent “statesmanship”, Ukraine’s serving President met with his three predecessors in the presidential TV studio to discuss current events – with clearly prepared media messages delivered by each “round-table” participant. The President promised to pressure prosecutors to release those arrested (for the duration of their prosecution) for apparently organizing the street riots in front of the Presidential Administration on Dec 1; the former Presidents suggested further concessions that Yanukovych might consider (e.g. prosecuting the Interior Minister, firing the Prime Minister, etc.) if “national round table” negotiations were in fact enjoined. Given last night’s police raid on the peaceful Euromaidan protests that now seems very unlikely.

In a foreshadowing of future regime propaganda and spin tactics, yesterday I witnessed two large mobile advertisements (trailers pulled by SUV’s) moving through Kyiv’s rush hour traffic with billboards encouraging readers to log-on to www.myzamir.com (“we are for peace”). This website hosts a Russian-language condemnation of “violence by all sides” – an implied message that I’m convinced will be broadcast today from every media outlet still loyal to the regime: talking heads will claim that riot police are not the only ones to blame for the forceful clearing of the demonstrations. The regime’s aim now will be to manipulate (or at least neutralize) public support for the Euromaidan protests by instilling fear in some, and indifference in others. I doubt it will work in Kyiv, but whether this will be an effective tactic in the eastern and southern regions of the country remains an open question.

Not surprisingly (and as predicted), in the wake of the Lenin statue incident on Sunday night, police presence on the streets of Kyiv increased yesterday. Although troop movements during the day caused significant stress (some would call it “panic”) on Independence Square – Klitschko even called for all women and children to leave the city center – no significant incidents of conflict with police occurred. The influx of Interior Ministry troops (not to be confused with “Berkut” riot police) was accompanied by an apparent “bomb scare” that resulted in the closing of 3 subway stations in the city center for several hours. No one in Kyiv really believed the bomb scare to be genuine – clearly this was a diversionary tactic aimed at minimizing a new influx of people onto Independence Square.

As night fell Monday night, the interior ministry troops pushed back protestors and dismantled the make shift barricades in front of the Cabinet of Ministers building, and near the Presidential Administration. However, to their credit, both police and demonstrators were well behaved. Interior Ministry troops established a cordon 5-7 men deep that marched forward slowly in a manoeuver that resembled the movement of an ancient Greek/Roman phalanx. Although demonstrators attempted to resist the forward movement of police by pushing back, not a single projectile was thrown, and neither batons (on the police side), nor sticks (from the protestors) went into play. If one could ever imagine “civilized” crowd control, this would have been a good example.

On Tuesday 10 December, Ukraine’s social media were filled with reports of touchingly humane interactions between police and demonstrators. Apparently, many of the young men on the police side are cold, hungry, and lonely: today, young ladies from the Euromaidan brought them hot tea, and sandwiches; in several spots, protestors moved their burning barrels closer to the police line, so that the men in uniform could feel a little warmth in the freezing temperatures. During the first days of the stand-off, when Kyiv-based police officers were deployed to control the crowds, individual officers who had previously served together were deliberately separated – apparently in this way commanders wanted to reduce the risk of defections from police ranks.

During tonight’s attempt to remove the barricades around Independence Square, the Interior Ministry mobilized all available human assets. According to reliable reports, several local police stations around the city were left operating with skeletal staff because all available manpower was moved to the city center. If the influx of people from the regions into Kyiv that has been called for by opposition leaders in fact materializes (I have little doubt it will), the capital’s policing capacity will be overwhelmed, and given the lousy treatment that Interior Ministry troops receive from the regime, defections are likely.

To an outsider, the tactics of the regime seem unbelievable and illogical. An article published on 5.12.2013 on liga.net (in Russian http://liga.net/opinion/155780_voyna-mirov-maydan-i-koncha-zaspa.htm) by Vitaliy Portnikov, a highly respected journalist, provides some insight into the motives of the regime, and contrasts the worldview of Ukraine’s political elite with that of the demonstrators. Vitaliy metaphorically compares the psychology of a resident of Koncha Zaspa (a residential area outside of Kyiv where political and business leaders have built their mansions) with the worldview of a Euromaidan protestor. For the former, it is inconceivable that the current demonstrations could possibly be manned by unpaid crowds; logically for them, eventually, the organizers’ funding will end, and the crowds will disperse; riot police will only serve to accelerate this process. For the Euromaidan protestor, the very suggestion of a protest for money is repugnant; she stands on Independence Square at night in the freezing cold, not even for some ephemeral European ideal, but simply for her own personal dignity, and for the dignity of all the others around her. The regime’s claims that last night’s police operations were justified by court rulings ordering demonstrators to clear government buildings and traffic areas, and that in fact police were not violent, is an affront to that sense of dignity.

The worldviews of the demonstrators are simply irreconcilable with the “values” of the current regime. More on this divide in future posts, but suffice it to say for now that more blood is yet to be shed before this is over. For now – keep warm, and stay tuned to Kyiv at night. The day belongs to the demonstrators; now we need to secure the night…

God help us!

Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

[ "Ukraine’s Revolution – The Regime Strikes Back" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy), which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by ‪#‎Euromaidan‬ and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in ‪#‎Ukraine‬ for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Check out Mychailo's most recent posts in this blog's archive … http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com ]

Dec. 8, 2013: Ukraine’s Revolution – Mychailo Wynnyckyj's update

Ukraine’s Revolution - Sunday December 8, 2013

By Mychailo Wynnyckyj
Kyiv, Ukraine

Given the overwhelmingly positive reaction to the destruction of the statue of Lenin in Kyiv today that I have been reading on Facebook, I realize that this note may not be received well by all. My thoughts may be particularly controversial to friends from outside Ukraine. Before I get into details, let me state outright: I am NOT a fan of Lenin. I have always seen the presence of a Lenin monument in Kyiv (the city that I have called home for 12 years) as an insult to the memory of my grandfather who spent almost a decade in a labor camp in Siberia, and to my wife’s grandfather who lived through a similar sentence for “anti-Soviet activities”. Nevertheless, I am convinced that demolishing the statue TONIGHT was the wrong thing to do.  

At 1pm today, when my family and I arrived at Kyiv’s Independence Square, we were part of a crowd that was unprecedented in this country’s history. There were more people on the streets today than last week, and more than we ever saw during the Orange Revolution. Estimates of numbers range from 500 000 to 1 million – in reality no one can really tell.

Whereas last week (in my opinion) people were guided primarily by their emotional reaction to the Nov 30 beatings of students on Independence Square, today, people came motivated by a rational desire to be part of a revolutionary change. Last week, after most people dispersed from the day’s demonstrations, the night turned very ugly: first provocateurs attacked the police barricades in front of the Presidential Administration, and then the “Berkut” riot police reacted by beating everyone in their path (including journalists). This week, after the massive influx of people to Independence Square began to clear, again things got out of hand, with the Lenin statue bearing the brunt of the crowd’s anger.

I don’t know the identities or allegiances of the provocateurs that orchestrated the demolition of the Lenin monument tonight. Svoboda activists are claiming responsibility, but the fact that police stood by and watched as the monument was destroyed is suspect. One thing I am sure of is that this event will be used by the Yanukovych regime as an excuse to strengthen police presence in Ukraine’s capital (if not to order forceful removal of demonstrators from the city center). Certainly, the video footage of the destruction of Lenin will be broadcast extensively by TV channels loyal to the regime in eastern and southern Ukraine (where Lenin is still considered an honorific historical figure) with ample Russian-language commentary as to the “neo-fascist” nature of the Euromaidan, and its “hooligans”.

During the past week, I have read countless notes and messages from friends in the West (and from Ukrainians also) calling for “action” from the Ukrainian people. Clearly the demolition of Lenin will be welcomed by these “armchair quarterbacks” as a commendable example of such action. I guess in this mindset, other monuments should be demolished next. I have only one rhetorical question to ask in this context: how many monuments will need to be demolished in order to force Yanukovych to resign? Demolishing statues is not what this revolution is about: it is about regime change in the context of a national declaration of Ukrainians’ desire to be part of a European identity and community of values. In this context, Lenin is irrelevant – removing his statue should be one of the tasks of a new government, but not of vandals disguising themselves as “revolutionaries”.

Lenin is a very strongly negative symbol for many in Ukraine (particularly in the West), but Lenin is also a part of the identity for another large section of the population in the eastern regions. Removing the statue of Lenin in Kyiv in an act of vandalism will only lead to national disunity – at a time when what is needed is the opposite: greater unity throughout the country. This was Lutsenko’s message from the stage today at the peak of the demonstration. I am convinced that other leaders of Ukraine’s political opposition understand the importance of national unity also. However, old ideologies sometimes may lead them to forget that they are being watched by the entire nation, and not just their own constituencies: at tonight’s press conference, while Klitschko was adamantly proclaiming that no political decisions had been taken to demolish the Lenin statue, Svoboda leader Tiahnybok found it very difficult to contain his elation.

When Yatseniuk took the microphone he first joked about Lenin (brushing off the event), and then proclaimed his main message: Yanukovych is preparing the legal basis for a declaration of a state of emergency (i.e. legal suspension of all civil liberties, and enforcement of curfews through martial law). According to Ukrainian law, a state of emergency can be declared in a particular region or part of the country for a period of 60 days, and nationally for 30 days. These time periods may be extended for 30 days if deemed necessary by the President. In order to proclaim a state of emergency due to civil unrest, the President must provide a warning to protesters, and ask them to disperse peacefully. Simultaneously, he must table a bill in Parliament asking for confirmation by the legislature of his intention to declare a state of emergency, and this bill must be voted on within 2 days. Clearly, under present circumstances, the opposition will attempt to block any such vote, but given the now assured (after the Lenin statue incident) support of the Communist Party, it is unlikely that Yanukovych’s Party of Regions would have trouble gaining majority support for the President’s request.

Today, Yatseniuk was clear: if a state of emergency is declared, ALL supporters of the revolution from all areas of Ukraine should descend upon Kyiv. Clearly such a massive influx of people would be difficult to control, but it would certainly constitute a real popular revolution that the opposition hopes would simply sweep away Yanukovych. I have little doubt that such mass movement of people on Ukraine’s capital would be met with bloody force, and would quickly degenerate into chaos.

A more likely scenario (if Yanukovych resists the temptation to resort to mass violence) is an attempt to resolve the current political crisis through negotiation. Last week, EU and OSCE leaders called for “round table” discussions, and today, several commentators have suggested that such negotiations could be organized by one (or all three) of Ukraine’s past Presidents. Clearly negotiations represent a civilized way out of the current crisis, but there is a problem: who should represent the Euromaidan? Vitaliy Klytschko, Arseniy Yatseniuk, and Oleh Tiahnybok are leaders of three Parliamentary opposition parties, but they are certainly not considered to be the legitimate leaders of the protest movement by the protestors themselves. In fact, when the first protests began 2 weeks ago, students insisted that no political flags be present at their protest, and several politicians were denied opportunities to speak at their rallies. Negative attitudes to opposition politicians have softened somewhat during the past week, but none of the three party leaders has yet emerged as the voice of the Euromaidan. Nor has anyone else.

The other problem with the “round table” scenario is the lack of basis for negotiations. The Euromaidan protestors are calling for the President’s resignation; legally this can only be achieved either voluntarily (according to the Constitution, a Presidential resignation must be personally proclaimed in Parliament) or through death; both variants are very unlikely. A “round table” negotiation with the regime might result in the arrest of Interior Minister Zakharchenko, the resignation of the government of Prime Minister Azarov, and even the freeing of political prisoners (certainly demonstrators arrested after the beatings on Dec 1 will be freed, but whether Yulia Tymoshenko will be released is still questionable), but it will certainly not result in Yanukovych’s resignation. Will the protestors on Euromaidan accept such a compromise?

As was poignantly pointed out by one television reporter tonight: it is one thing to step forward as a leader of the Euromaidan, and quite another matter to gain control (respect, obedience) of the people gathered there. The Euromaidan itself is now an independent actor in Ukraine’s revolution, and its radical wings are not necessarily controlled or led by Ukraine’s thee-headed political opposition. That is a political factor that needs to be taken into account when looking at how the current crisis will end.

The scenario according to which the current crisis is most likely to unfold, in my opinion, is one of long-term stand off. Both sides will try to gain some advantage during the coming weeks (months?), but the crisis will continue as a war of attrition. Short-term gains by Euromaidan protestors may include temporarily blocking some government buildings (in addition to the Cabinet of Ministers and Presidential Administration), and even an attempt to picket the Mezhyhiriya residence of President Yanukovych 17 km from the city center (this initiative was announced today as the next step in the protestors’ escalation plans, but it is unlikely that any such march will break through the multiple barriers of armed interior ministry troops along the way). The regime may try to clear the demonstrators from the Cabinet of Ministers’ building (the road in front of the building – a main traffic artery through the center of the city – was blocked tonight), but this will only increase the resolve of protestors on Independence Square. Whether the would-be revolutionaries will be able to survive in tents in Kyiv’s severe winter weather, and whether the government will be able to maintain some semblance of operations with its main buildings blocked are both open questions.  

Actually I am quite optimistic about the “stand-off” scenario because I’m convinced that this war of attrition is one that the regime will lose – although exactly how the loss will come is still unsure. The Euromaidan has logistical operations fully established; the stage is host to great musicians and speakers; greater numbers are gathering each week, and the atmosphere could not be more positive. Yesterday I was invited to give a lecture at something called the “Euromaidan University” – an initiative aimed at adding some intellectual content to the protests. Clearly we are in this for the long haul…

On the other hand, the government is noticeably in crisis. It must manage an economy with a state budget that is bare. Its support in Ukraine’s capital is now in the single digits, and the fact that many national television broadcasts (including the popular 1+1 channel) have been neutral or supportive of the Euromaidan protestors indicates that loss of support in the regions is sure to follow. At the moment, the resolve of Azarov (at least publicly) is unquestionable. Yanukovych’s mood after his return from China, and meetings with Putin in the Russian town of Sochi on the return leg, are unclear. The next few days will be telling…

God help us!

Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

December 8, 2013 at 11:58 pm in Kyiv

[ "Ukraine’s Revolution - Sunday December 8, 2013" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy), which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by ‪#‎Euromaidan‬ and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in ‪#‎Ukraine‬ for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Check out Mychailo's most recent posts in this blog's archive … http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com ]