"Ukraine’s Revolution – Day 1" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) on December 1, 2013 at 9:26 PM in Kyiv, which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by #Euromaidan and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in #Ukraine for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Also, check out Mychailo's previous posts in this series by accessing this blog's archive.
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Ukraine’s Revolution – Day 1
Events in Kyiv are evolving VERY quickly. Last week, mass protests in Ukraine represented an attempt to pressure President Yanukovych to sign the Association Agreement with the EU. After Saturday’s early morning attack by riot police on protestors camped in Independence Square, a paradigm shift occurred: this is not about Europe anymore. People on Ukraine’s streets are no longer calling for EU integration – or if they are, this is now a peripheral demand. Ukrainians now simply want a change of government. The word “revolution” - chanted by demonstrators - seems to sound increasingly believable.
I note this because Ukrainians living abroad are gathering today (Sunday December 1) in many world capitals to demonstrate their support for Ukraine’ s eurointegration. I suspect many EU leaders also believe this issue is still salient to Ukraine – indeed this was the message from two Polish speakers (including former PM Yaroslav Kachinsky) on Independence Square today. However, to the people on the streets of Kyiv, European integration is an issue that a NEW government will have to turn to - eventually. Right now, they (we) are demonstrating because they have lost all faith in their current government – a government that dared to savagely beat defenseless students in the dead of night. If international protests are to be relevant to Ukraine’s realities, they need to be synchronized with the mood in Kyiv (and Lviv and other cities), and here the demand is simple: President Yanukovych must go!
Today, a very large scale demonstration took place in the center of Kyiv (participant estimates range from 350 thousand to 1 million people). Many thousands travelled to the capital from Ukraine’s regions; many former government and army officials have joined the protest movement. As my wife and I walked to the demonstration this morning it was very clear that Kyiv residents were not going about their normal weekend business – the streets were practically empty because most Kyiv residents had joined the protests in the city center. The last time the Ukrainian capital hosted this many demonstrators was 2004, and before that in 1991.
But one peaceful demonstration, no matter how large, will not be enough to topple the Yanukovych regime, and it would seem that many realize this fact. Immediately after today’s peaceful demonstration on Independence Square began to disperse, a group of violent radicals attempted to raid the Presidential Administration building on Bankova St. where a street fight erupted with riot police. According to opposition leaders, the radicals’ attack was instigated by operatives (“provokatory”) from the regime itself in an attempt to generate a pretext for a proclamation of martial law in Ukraine’s capital. That theory may have merit, but the fact that a street fight with police occurred at all indicates that opposition leaders do not fully control the situation in the areas around Kyiv’s administrative buildings. If one were to describe the situation in a single word, it would be “chaotic”: mobile phone service in the city center is sporadic; no clear chain of command seems to exist yet between the newly formed command center on Independence Square and the various pockets of protesters around the city center; people are angry and radicalized, and are eager to act, but without clear instructions as to what to do.
Some degree of chaos may be a prerequisite of rebellion, but in my opinion, it is still an open question whether this street protest has in fact gained enough mass support for a revolution to occur. Last night, as I was coming home on the metro from the demonstration on Mykhailivsky square, I noticed that only 4-5 others on the crowded subway car were wearing blue and yellow symbolism on their jackets; when a lady started handing out leaflets calling for people to join today’s demonstrations, reactions were subdued, and in some cases indifferent. To many in Kyiv’s working class, the Vilnius summit last week was a very distant issue that did not touch upon their daily lives; given the sudden change of focus, they have not yet reset themselves to the new protest reality (though the brutal beating of students on Independence Square has certainly mobilized many). If asked whether they support a change of government, the vast majority of Kyiv residents of all socio-economic classes and ages adamantly agree that Yanukovych must go. But many have not yet realized that the time for this change is now, and it is within their power to institute this change. In my opinion, escalating the situation (e.g. by imposing a state of emergency) will certainly mobilize more of them,and may actually increase the chances of regime change; on the other hand, escalation will inevitably lead to more bloodshed.
The above may sound like a call to arms, but I do not intend it to be taken as such. I am simply trying to contextualize current events, and to extrapolate possible developments. In Ukrainian history there are countless periods of “povstannia” (particularly during the 16-18 century Cossack periods). Literally this word translates not as rebellion or revolution, butas “rising”. It connotes a general popular uprising that is focussed AGAINST a social regime (not even a particular leader). A “povstannia” does not necessarily have a plan for what comes after the regime has been overthrown – the goal is simply to overthrow and change. Clearly such general popular uprisings have been romanticized by story tellers as abrupt events; in reality it takes some time to rally a sufficient number of people to overthrow an entrenched regime. On the other hand, once the people rise, all key rulers are swept away. History shows that the downside of such “povstannia”is that the new rulers who emerge after the old regime has been replaced (and the people return to their daily lives), are often not much better than their predecessors. But that is a separate issue…
What we are experiencing today in Ukraine is a popular uprising (“povstannia”) that could yet fizzle if mass support for regime change is not maintained. Tomorrow, opposition leaders have planned civil disobedience (including drivers parking their cars on streets around government buildings), and continued demonstrations on Independence Square (a stage is to be set up there – regardless of a court order specifically forbidding this). I spent a few hours on Mykhailivska square yesterday – the open space in front of St. Michael’s monastery in the center of Kyiv, to which students fled from Independence square after being attacked by riot police on early Saturday morning. Not surprisingly, the mood had changed since Friday night: no music, no dancing, fewer EU flags, and more radical calls to action (including violence) coming from the speakers.I met some friends who are now opposition Parliamentarians, and asked whether calling a general strike was part of their plans. The answer came: “All in good time. First we block access to government buildings; then we shut down the country.” Clearly, the flywheel of uprising needs time to get rolling.
How did we come to thecurrent state – the beginning of a popular uprising? The Ukraine-EU Association Agreement was certainly the catalyst of the past week’s events in Ukraine. Had Prime Minister Azarov’s government not issued a public statement stating that preparations for signing the document were suspended; had Yanukovych not tried to haggle with EU leaders by presenting them with unreasonable financial demands; had Ukraine’s President actually signed the Agreement – the street protests would either never have happened, or they would have dissipated by today. Most importantly, had there been no violent crack-down on the remaining protesters on Independence Square early Saturday morning, the demonstrators would have simply dispersed. But events took place differently, and many are asking “why”?
A friend of mine on Facebook wrote me the following questions: “…what did he (Yanukovych) think of when he used the troops… what strategy was on his mind when he did it? Was there any?”
Conspiracy theories abound: the most obvious one involves Yanukovych simply succumbing to Russian pressure not to sign the EU Agreement, and then a “rogue” police commander (possibly the Interior Minister) giving the order to attack without the President’s knowledge. This theory is clearly the most convenient to the current regime, and will be presented in coming days as a representation of fact. According to this theory, we should soon see the resignation/firing of the Minister of the Interior, and possibly of the Prime Minister, but Yanukovych himself will remain in office. Opposition leaders are unlikely to accept such a “resolution” to the current crisis, but whether they will be able to maintain popular support on the streets during the coming winter weeks (months?) is an open question.
Other theories circulating in Kyiv focus on analyses of various conspiratorial power plays behind the scenes in the Presidential Administration, where apparently a pro-Russian group has been in a long-term stand-off with a pro-EU group.According to one of these theories, the pro-EU group actually quietly supported the students’ protests, and had hoped to return to the issue of the Association Agreement at the planned Ukraine-EU summit in March 2014 under the pretext of this issue being particularly salient to the people of Ukraine. For the pro-Russia group, this turn of events was clearly unacceptable, and so the pro-EU student protests needed to be dispersed. According to this theory, if the planned dispersal hadled to mass violence, the pro-Russian group would have called onYanukovych to declare a state of emergency; if popular reaction did not erupt, this would have served as evidence for the West that in reality, demands for EU integration in Ukraine have only marginal support. Thus, according to this conspiracy theory, if popular reaction to police brutality fizzles as it did in Moscow after the Manezhnaya square crackdown, then the pro-Russia group within the Presidential Administration will have proven that Ukraine is truly part of the “Ruskiy Mir” (Russian World) geo-political space, and therefore subject to the diktat of Putin. On the other hand, if Ukraine’s people had taken to the streets (as they have), some instigated violence should be used as a pretext for the declaration of a state of emergency, and if mass demonstrations and social chaos continue despite restrictions, Russian troops can be called in (particularly into Ukraine’s eastern regions) to “calm” the situation, and to “protect ethnic Russians” (pretexts used by Russia to justify military interventions in Abkhazia, Ossetia, and other border regions).
Now that more than a full day has passed since the savage attack by riot police on the student protest camp on Independence Square, and after today’s peaceful return of demonstrators to that same square in MUCH greater numbers, I am increasingly confident that the conspiracy theories are wrong. Yanukovych may try to blame his Ministers, but this is unlikely to be enough to calm the demonstrations at this point. The uprising has started, and it will not be stopped with token gestures.
On the other hand, this uprising will not end soon, and it may yet lead to a split in the country. Clearly much of the violence that is occurring tonight on Kyiv’s streets is being instigated artificially. As I write these words, in addition to the Presidential Administration, the Lenin monument in the city center was just attacked – a street fight is ongoing with riot police. An obvious question arises: in whose interest is it to see the situation in Kyiv degenerate into chaos? Events in Ukraine are not occurring in a vacuum; the country’s neighbors have a role to play – be it positive or negative…
The next few days are likely to bring more chaos, and (unfortunately) violence, but after the ugliness is over, the Ukrainian nation will emerge stronger… More to come!
In the meantime, God help us all!
Mychailo Wynnyckyj Ph.D.
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
