Ukraine’s Revolution – Day 4-5 – Stand-off
By Mychailo Wynnyckyj
December 5, 2013
Kyiv, Ukraine
I tried writing my daily email/Facebook report on Ukraine’s revolution last night, but realized that basically nothing much happened yesterday – and that’s very good news! With President Yanukovych in China, and several foreign ministers in Kyiv for a meeting of the OSCE, the demonstrators had an opportunity to consolidate their logistics, fortify their camp (and resolve), to organize communications support for their cause, and legal assistance for individuals from their ranks who have been wrongfully jailed by the regime. Although the mood on Independence Square remains tense, it seems clear that the stand-off between the protesters and Ukraine’s government will remain in a quasi-frozen state until such time as fewer potential western witnesses of any forceful attempt to remove the Euromaidan are present in Kyiv, and until the President returns to Ukraine.
Indeed, the inaction of government officials (lack of violence and absence of will to disperse the protesters) during the last two days has finally dispelled any doubts that may have existed as to the authoritarian nature of executive power in Ukraine. The regime did nothing significant to impact the street protests because the man who actually makes all significant decisions in this country happens to be in China at the moment. This should be kept in mind when negotiations between the regime and the opposition (called for by EU-leaders and by the OSCE) eventually begin, and compromises are called for. Sacrificing the Azarov government while keeping Yanukovych in power (as some have suggested) will not constitute regime change in Ukraine. For real change to occur, Yanukovych must go.
In a possible prelude to a future attempt to clear the center of Ukraine’s capital by force, today, a court order was delivered to demonstrators currently occupying Kyiv’s city hall: unless their legal challenges are successful (highly unlikely given the tendentious nature of Ukraine’s courts), protesters have until Monday evening to leave the administrative building. The court ruling also references the Trade Union building where the opposition has established its headquarters, and the October Palace concert hall, the premises of which several hundred demonstrators have been using as lodging. A separate court order to remove the blockade from the Cabinet of Ministers building was delivered to demonstrators there today also.
Few in Kyiv doubt that force will eventually be used by the regime to clear the city center. Special interior ministry troops (the “Tiger” brigade) have been relocated from Crimea to the vicinity of the capital, and although the entrance to their base in the town of Vasylkiv has been blocked by demonstrators, no doubt this elite squad could break through the protester blockade within a few minutes if ordered to do so. During his speech in Parliament on Tuesday, Prime Minister Azarov did not mince words: “We have enough power to clear all government buildings” he said in a poorly veiled reference to the “Berkut” riot police that in recent days has been the primary weapon used by the regime against the demonstrators. Yesterday, Prosecutor General Pshonka broadcast a short statement in which he warned that occupying government buildings is a criminal offence, and that those responsible would certainly be punished to the full extent of the law.
But in the authoritarian state that Ukraine has become, none of this will happen without “Papa” Yanukovych’s direct order, and the President has demonstrated on several occasions (particularly in the case of Yulia Tymoshenko) that he prefers to hide behind formal court rulings before actually resorting to the use of force. So we can safely predict that if the court deadline for clearing government buildings is Monday evening, the demonstrators have some breathing room until then.
However, on the regime side, the Party of Regions political machine which backs Yanukovych, seems to have profited from the current pause in events also. After having been seriously shaken by the scale of the demonstrations and the horrors of the atrocities that occurred last weekend, the main political force backing the current government has now reconsolidated. Two Party of Regions Parliamentarians (Inna Bogoslovska and David Zhvania) defected from their faction on Monday, but two others (Bondar and Rudkovsky) who had announced that they would leave the Party of Regions after the riot police’s savagery on the weekend, today retracted their statements with no explanation.
In a similarly suspect turn of events, former Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk (1991-1994), who had signed a joint statement at the beginning of the week with former Presidents Kuchma (1994-2004) and Yushchenko (2005-2010) in which they denounced last weekend’s violence, today called a special press conference to condemn the demonstrators for illegally occupying government buildings, and to disparage Ukraine’s three opposition leaders for not announcing which one of them will run as the united opposition’s candidate for the Presidency – a question that is increasingly irrelevant to the demonstrators, but one that is often raised by Party of Regions spin doctors as evidence of disunity in the opposition ranks.
On the side of the demonstrators, in addition to holding the fort on Independence Square, morning marches to key government buildings have been organized with several thousand participants each day. For example, yesterday and today, protesters set up blockades of buildings where those accused of organizing the street violence on Sunday December 1 on Bankova St. are currently being held; last night, a rally of over 100 passenger cars blocked the street in front of the “Berkut” riot police base, and honked their horns for an hour, thereby sending the message “if you don’t let us sleep at night, we won’t let you sleep either”.
In a small victory for the protest movement, students who marched to the Ministry of Education yesterday were successful in forcing the First Deputy Minister to issue a document that officially allows students to participate in civic activities without fear of repressions. Whether this order will actually be followed remains to be seen. Currently, several students are still officially listed as missing after the street violence last weekend, and although repressions at the level of educational institutions (i.e. expulsions or deflation of grades) now seem unlikely, many young people remain psychologically shaken by having had their lives threatened by police actions during the weekend. Today, approximately 20 students who had previously been listed as missing were found in hospital with very serious injuries – several are reported to be on the verge of death.
Meanwhile on Independence Square, during the past 2 days, fortifications have been strengthened, logistical processes improved, and a command and control hierarchy established. Yesterday the square was filled with rumors that at least one of the protesters injured during the clearing of Bankova Street on Sunday had died. Given the footage on the internet of savage brutality on the part of the riot police (one video shows a fallen man receiving over 50 kicks and nightstick beetings while lying on the ground), if one of the victims has in fact died, this would not be surprising. However, it is also clear that a single confirmed death at the hands of police could potentially lead to even greater protests that may not be controllable either by the regime or the opposition. Earlier this year, when three police officers were found to have raped a woman in the southern Ukrainian village of Vradiyivka, the entire village stormed the local police station in an attempt to lynch the officers. A nation-wide lynch campaign could get out of hand very easily, and for this reason functioning command and control structures (on both sides) are key to keeping the peace.
Another very important factor that has helped to keep the current stand-off between the regime and the Maidan peaceful, is the current presence of high ranking western diplomats in Kyiv. Yesterday, I was invited to a reception with Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird who was in town for a meeting of the OSCE. The Minister gave a brief statement in which he reiterated Canada’s support for democracy and human rights in Ukraine, and today he met with protesters on Independence Square (but did not speak from the stage). Although publicly diplomatic, at the reception yesterday the Minister alluded to his tendency to be frank in relaying his beliefs to foreign government counterparts in private meetings. Later he met with Ukraine’s opposition leaders at the Canadian embassy, and with government officials today.
Foreign pressure on the regime is picking up, and is very much appreciated in all forms by the protesters. The foreign minister of Germany (also here for the OSCE meeting) today toured the Independence Square camp together with opposition leaders, and then held a short press conference. Journalists on one of Georgia’s television channels dressed in blue and yellow for their broadcast, and in Warsaw, Ukrainian flags lined the main street, and the Polish capital’s Palace of Culture and Science was illuminated in blue and yellow in solidarity with EuroMaidan.
Today, news programs on several Ukrainian channels broadcast stories of Polish and German border guards inviting Ukrainian passport holders to cross their respective borders using channels labeled for “EU citizens”. This privilege has traditionally been denied to Ukrainians, and is seen by many as particularly demeaning. But the message today was clear: the Ukrainian regime may not wish to sign an Association Agreement with the EU, but the EU itself recognizes and appreciates the desires of the Ukrainian people to be European. Such gestures are very much appreciated here. Please keep them coming!
Meanwhile in China, President Yanukovych – the man who is the de facto addressee of all of the diplomatic messages currently being transmitted by western leaders to the Ukrainian government – spent yesterday viewing the famous terracotta army in the city of Xian. The irony of the situation was not missed by Ukraine’s opposition press (broadcasting on Channel 5, TVi, Channel 24, and on several internet TV channels): while tens of thousands gather on the streets of Kyiv, the President spent the day viewing museum artefacts. Today’s news reports were kinder, claiming that Yanukovych would be returning to Ukraine tomorrow with over $8 billion in investment deals. Evidently he will have something to talk about to the people when he arrives. But are they really interested in listening?
That question is clearly rhetorical - at least for the protestors in Kyiv’s streets and squares. And although Party of Regions financiers have generously tried to organize alternative protests by bussing paid demonstrators to proclaim their support for the economic policies of the current regime, such events have been short-lived and have drawn laughable numbers of participants. For the vast majority of people gathering in Kyiv to protest against the regime, investment figures and economic agreements with China (or anyone else for that matter) are completely irrelevant. They want those responsible for independent Ukraine’s first ever incidents of street violence to be punished, and more immediately, they want the regime to stop persecuting (through selective justice) those who dare to stand-up for their rights and beliefs. Long-term: they want personal dignity and rules-based government; they want freedom to travel to Europe; they want to be proud of their own country (which may explain why the national anthem is sung on the Maidan on an hourly basis…) But clearly, the regime is not listening – a fact that merely increases the protesters’ anger.
As temperatures drop daily, the stand-off on the streets of Kyiv continues with demonstrators apparently awaiting the return of the object of their anger – President Yanukovych – to Ukraine. And, although several Party of Regions Parliamentarians have recently expressed confidence that the protests will dissipate by next week, I would challenge them to spend at least an hour in the camp on Independence Square before making such claims. The Maidan is strengthening, and there are absolutely no signs of people dispersing voluntarily. On the contrary, the protesters seem increasingly organized and determined to achieve their goal of regime change.
The determination of the people on Maidan is certainly admirable, but there is a downside also: this stand-off will not end soon. Yanukovych is an authoritarian who will not give up power without a fight. And for this reason Ukrainians need continuous and vocal support from the international community: constant visits by dignitaries (including both politicians and others – e.g. musicians), international news reporters on the ground in Kyiv, human rights monitoring missions – all of these are key to making sure Yanukovych thinks twice before giving orders to disperse the demonstrators, and to resort to violence and repression again.
Ukraine needs international support – please don’t forget us in this long, but righteous stand-off!
God help us!
Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
[ "Ukraine’s Revolution – Day 4-5 – Stand-off" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy), which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by #Euromaidan and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in #Ukraine for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Check out Mychailo's most recent posts in this blog's archive … http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com ]
