By Mychailo Wynnyckyj
December 3, 2013
Kyiv, Ukraine
Today, Ukraine’s opposition suffered a setback: the confidence motion that they had demanded, did not gain enough votes in Parliament to force the resignation of Prime Minister Azarov’s government. After a series of carefully planned and scripted statements by the leaders of Ukraine’s five parliamentary parties, and a lengthy and emotional speech by Azarov, the motion received only 186 of the required 226 votes.
At first it seemed that the motion would carry. News reports had claimed that Party of Regions deputies were defecting to the opposition in large numbers. Furthermore, Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko (the Party of Region’s coalition partner) began his speech with scathing criticism of the Azarov government, seemingly foreshadowing his faction’s support for the no confidence motion. But after 3 minutes, Symonenko suddenly turned his attention to the three opposition factions, stating outright that the wording of the bill that they had tabled which identified the government’s sudden about-face on EU integration as the reason for Parliament’s loss of confidence, was unacceptable to the Communists. Ukraine’s Communists have opposed the government’s pro-EU policy for years, and therefore could not accept the opposition’s formulation. Symonenko held up his own bill, signed by all 33 Communist Party Parliamentarians, which identified different reasons for firing Azarov, and asked the opposition to support his version. Batkivshchyna faction leader Arseniy Yatseniuk immediately stated that the opposition would support the Communists’ motion (swallowing its distaste).
However, speaker Rybak called a vote on the original motion which the Communists did not support. When that vote failed, Rybak congratulated Azarov, and explained to those watching the proceedings that the Communists’ bill had not been previously registered on the Parliamentary docket, and according to the Rada’s procedure, it could not be introduced for a vote without first being printed and distributed to all deputies. The “optics” of this situation seem to suit both sides: the Communists can now argue to their supporters that although they did not actually vote for the resignation of the unpopular Azarov government, they actually proposed their own solution to the stand-off, but were denied by circumstances. On the other hand, the opposition can now blame both the Communists and Party of Regions (both equally unpopular in opposition constituencies) for their failure, and claim that they tried all options to have Azarov fired. “Optics” secured, the opposition politely blocked the Parliamentary roster, and Speaker Rybak quickly closed the proceedings. Meanwhile, according to Ukraine’s Constitution, a confidence vote can only be called once in a Parliamentary session, so Azarov’s government has de facto gained immunity until February when the legislature will re-open for its spring session. According to procedure, the government may now be only fired by the President.
In any public event, and revolutions are no exception, the substance of what is said, or what occurs, is often less important than how it is presented and how it is viewed by one’s constituency. Campaign managers and press attaches call this “the optics” and “spin” – and these need to be managed very carefully given their influence on the public’s perception of an official or event.
On Independence Square the optics of a well-organized machine have certainly been secured, and are probably real. Temperatures have dropped well below freezing, but ample supplies of food, clothing and firewood have been stocked, and musicians regularly keep the protesters entertained and moving. A website has been set up for people wanting to donate to the cause of Euromaidan and for visitors seeking help: http://maidansupport.com Accommodation and transport for those coming from the regions has been secured, and an impressive logistical machine seems to be in place. The perimeter of the camp is well secured by barricades and several TV channels have set up mobile broadcasting centers.
Tonight, opposition leader Vitaliy Klitshko came to support the demonstrators together with his brother (another world heavyweight boxing champion), and his wife. She sang a popular folk song for the gathered crowds. The idea was clearly to demonstrate “closeness” to the demonstrators. A huge screen televised the event for all to see.
But the skeptic in me asks whether the demonstrated “closeness” and support for the rank and file protestors who are not necessarily party supporters are genuine. Why were no lawyers or supporters dispatched by the opposition parties to the Shevchenko region courthouse, where supposed “organizers” of the Sunday evening violence in front of the Presidential Administration, were being tried and sentenced by the regime today? The government has moved with lightening speed to try these 9 young people – presenting highly suspect evidence, and often ignoring the fact that several of the accused have been so badly beaten that they cannot stand in court (one was barely conscious when his 2 month sentence was read out). However, because none of the accused are opposition party activists – each is simply a private citizen who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time – the party leaders apparently do not feel obliged to provide them with legal support. This fact has been widely condemned in social media, but it demonstrates whom the optics of the opposition leaders seem to be targeting: either a western audience, or their own party followers – all others are simply not their constituency.
The issue of optics is even more blatant on the regime side. This morning, prior to the vote in Parliament, the Party of Regions staged a “protest” in the neighboring park, supposedly to demonstrate popular support for the Azarov governement. Busses of paid participants were brought in to Kyiv from Donetsk (many admitted on camera to being paid) to listen to Party of Regions speakers give speeches to TV cameras, ignoring the present audience. The stage was adorned with the slogan: “Kyiv is not just the capital of the opposition, Kyiv is the capital of our state” - printed in Russian. Donetsk regional and Russian national television broadcast this demonstration with commentary as to its being a “balance” to the opposition Euromaidan. The fact that several hundred paid participants is difficult to “balance” with 30-40 thousand opposition activists on the streets around Parliament is a moot point for those managing the optics.
Party of Regions deputies Olena Bondarenko and Oleksandr Oliynyk have been particularly skillful at “spinning” the police violence that occurred on the weekend in their organization’s favor. Both have accused opposition leaders of disserting students on the Euromaidan during the early hours of Saturday morning. Apparently, it is the opposition that is responsible for the police beatings of the students because it was the opposition that organized their protest (which is not true, but facts are secondary when it comes to spin). Opposition leaders are on record as having suspected that violence could be in the regime’s plans already on Friday night, so the fact that they were not personally present on Independence Square with the students at 4am indicates that it is in fact the opposition that is to blame for the students’ being beaten by police. Logic is clearly not Bondarenko’s and Oliynyk’s forte, but they seem to be saying what their constituencies need to hear. Today Bondarenko and Minister of the Interior Zakharchenko visited a police hospital where “victims” of the riots in front of the Presidential Administration (wounded riot police) spoke of the horrors that they experienced. Clearly, none of the interviewed police mentioned beaten journalists…
The epitome of spin and optics was the speech by Prime Minister Azarov in Parliament today. He began by meekly prostrating himself with an apology for the weekend violence, promising a full and balanced inquiry that will result in the prosecution of those responsible. However, his Minister of the Interior was noticeably not present at this time in Parliament (whereas all other ministers were), and none of his subordinates has yet to be charged, whereas opposition “organizers” have already been tried and sentenced…
Within a few seconds after the apology, the Prime Minister’s tone changed, quickly becoming emotional and aggressive: he turned to the opposition parties, and demanded that the protesters that they apparently have mobilized cease their blockade of the Cabinet of Ministers building, and he assured all present that the state controls sufficient “power resources” to forcibly remove the blockade if necessary. This (not so) veiled threat was followed by a long tirade about the sorry state of the Ukrainian economy, which the Azarov government has been trying to stabilize, but has finally run out of steam because of the untenable gas prices that Ukraine is forced to pay monthly due to the deal with Russia signed in 2009 by Yulia Tymoshenko. In other words, Azarov, yet again, placed all blame for Ukraine’s current economic problems on former Prime Minister Tymoshenko, who has been in jail for the past 2 years…
Reading through my own text above, I realize that I have taken a somewhat sarcastic tone, but this is perhaps justified given the massive amount of evidently false information currently being circulated. This “revolution” is as much a war of information as a war of people. The internet is constantly filled with blatant disinformation aimed at either frightening protestors, or simply destabilizing the situation. Given that the regime has shown itself to be ready to use force, some false posts (e.g. videos of tanks moving towards Kyiv, reports of mobile water cannon on side streets around Independence Square, photos of riot police apparently camped around the city) are having an effect: the protestors’ resolve is not fading (if anything, they are becoming more determined to see the ouster of Yanukovych), but people have become edgy and worried about provocateurs, and possible attacks by the regime.
On the other hand, Yanukovych’s supporters are clearly not as savvy as the protestors with respect to the use of technology. The Sunday night savage beatings of journalists by riot police have been well documented (to the chagrin of the authorities), and video has circulated around the world much faster than anyone in the Ukrainian government had expected. Ample evidence of police brutality has come into the public domain with lightning speed.
Tonight, the most popular shares on Facebook are posts of photographs of documents issued by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General demanding that the rectors of Kyiv’s universities provide authorities with lists of students and faculty that took part in the student protests last week. If authorities had planned to frighten student activists with such demands, they failed. The result has been greater resolve, and outrage at the prospect of a Soviet-style crackdown on dissenting youth.
One final point: it is unclear whether the people “spinning” information on both sides actually believe in what they are saying. After the failed vote today, some in the protest camp have started to grumble about a lack of plan as to what comes next. Opposition leaders never tire of repeating that they know what they are doing (although for obvious reasons they cannot always share their plans with everyone), but sometimes they fail to communicate this to their followers effectively. Just prior to the failed vote today, Yatseniuk aggressively told Azarov to resign or be swept away by the millions of Ukrainians currently rising against his government. The Prime Minister angrily retorted that he too (meaning also the President and Party of Regions) has millions of followers. Do Yatseniuk, Klitschko and Tiahnybok actually know how to lead an uprising of millions of citizens? Clearly most of their support originates from the center and west of the country, but can they expand their uprising to other regions? Can the regime of Yanukovych and Azarov still legitimately claim significant support in the east and south? Can/should these supporters be mobilized by appealing to ideas rather than wallets?
All of the above remain open questions, and clearly the spin and optics of today’s events was targeted at testing the answers to some of them. Time will tell…
In any case, we’ll have ample opportunities yet to observe how events unfold because the people on Kyiv’s Independence Square are not going anywhere soon. Nor does it look like the Yanukovych regime has any plans to capitulate soon. The stand-off continues.
Keep warm! And God help us!
Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
[ "Ukraine’s Revolution – Day 3 – Optics and Spin" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy), which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by #Euromaidan and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in #Ukraine for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Check out Mychailo's most recent posts in this blog's archive … http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com ]
