Ukraine’s Revolution – Day 2 – The thug speaks
By Mychailo Wynnyckyj
December 2, 2013
Kyiv, Ukraine
I realize that some may find my reference to Ukraine’s current President as a thug to be tendentious (to say the least), but it’s time for the world to understand who in fact we are dealing with. The word “thug” seems to be the most accurate description of Yanukovych. His actions are not strategic; he is not a person of compromise; he is exceptionally dangerous if backed into a corner; he understands strength, force and money; he plays diplomatic games, but in fact is authoritarian and demands absolute loyalty from those around him; although publicly religious, he feels no remorse (or personal responsibility) for the pain and suffering inflicted on defenseless students and journalists during the past weekend by the riot police squads for whom he is commander-in-chief.
Tonight, 24 hours after almost half a million people gathered on the streets of Kyiv to protest against police brutality against students camped out in a peaceful protest on Independence Square, and 18 hours after those protests turned violent and bloody when riot police not only dispersed crowds, but also hunted down defenseless journalists, and beat them senseless, President Yanukovych finally broadcast a televised interview to the nation. Incidentally, because of the current upheavals in the center of Kyiv, the interview was held in the President’s residence in Mezhyhiriya (approx. 40 km from Kyiv).
So what did he say?
With respect to the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, Yanukovych presented a detailed account of events that led him to refuse to sign the deal, and repeated his argument that Ukraine’s economy is not yet ready to be integrated into a common European market without a massive infusion of funding. The President also stated explicitly that in parallel with ongoing negotiations with Brussels, he has ordered a renewal of negotiations on a “strategic partnership agreement” with Moscow which should result in a significant decrease in gas prices. In fact the question of gas prices, trade relations, and other economic issues took up more than 3/4 of the time allotted to the interview (46 minutes total). Yanukovych does not seem to understand that demonstrators on the streets of Kyiv and other cities are completely uninterested in these issues. For them, eurointegration is a question of values, not of money.
When asked about the current situation on the streets of Kyiv (mass protests, police brutality, barricades on Independence Square), the President stated: “In even the most democratic countries, laws are written to defend those who are called upon to enforce them.” He continued by calling for a full investigation of recent events by the Prosecutor’s office, and condemned those protestors who have occupied Kyiv city hall, “using children as a shield”. Although he condemned “provokers” of violence, he did not announce the firing or even suspension of those ministers who are suspected of having ordered the brutal riot police attacks on unarmed citizens. On the other hand, he did not even come close to alluding to a future suspension of civil liberties or a proclamation of a state of emergency – as many had expected of him.
In a nutshell, with respect to the current political situation, Yanukovych’s message was that everything is basically OK in Ukraine. The country is experiencing some economic and political turmoil (and investigations of perpetrators on both sides should follow due judicial process), but in reality, there is nothing really to be alarmed about.
This is a message that sounds strange when compared to Yanukovych’s address to the nation – published on Saturday evening on his website, 24-hours prior to the clashes on the street in front of the Presidential Administration. In that address the President expressed regret over the riot police’s brutal attack on students on early Saturday morning, and though he did not announce firings, he was quite forceful in his demand that the Prosecutor General personally report to him as to who was responsible for ordering the attack. That address came as close to an apology that one could expect from a thug. Today, Yanukovych was back to his normal psychological state: never apologize because it makes you look weak.
Tomorrow Yanukovych will fly to Beijing on a state visit to the People’s Republic of China. Officially, the goal of this trip is to sign a multi-billion dollar loan agreement for Ukraine, together with other trade deals that are vital to the country’s economy. But given that the center of Ukraine’s capital is currently blocked by 30-40 thousand demonstrators who have barricaded all routes into Independence Square, and today shut down the Cabinet of Ministers (executive branch) building by blocking all entrances with a human shield, planning a foreign visit by the President may seem a little strange (to say the least).
During Yanukovych’s absence I project that events will unfold according to two possible scenarios:
1) Nothing will happen. All key decisions in Ukraine require Presidential approval. The system of government that Yanukovych has set up is strictly hierarchical (authoritarian). If he is personally out of the country, decision-making with respect to the demonstrators’ demands will be paralyzed. If this scenario is realized, the protests on Independence Square will continue as the temperature drops (tonight it is -5 C in Kyiv), and their mood will get increasingly angrier. Yanukovych may believe that the stand-off will fizzle out over time, but in my humble opinion, he is wrong: the fly-wheel of revolution is increasingly becoming better organized, and protesters are becoming hardened in their resolve for regime change. In this scenario, when the President returns from China, he will be faced with a hardline, organized opposition that will gather even larger crowds next weekend than last.
2) An attempt to forcefully disperse the protestors on Independence Square. In this scenario, Yanukovych has already formulated an executive order that will be implemented in his absence, allowing him the ability to “plausibly” deny knowledge of any crackdown. The person who actually gives the order to disperse the demonstrators will (of course) commit political suicide, but such an act of absolute loyalty will be richly rewarded by Yanukovych after the dust settles. Who in the President’s entourage is loyal enough to be a candidate for such a mission? Strangely enough, the opposition could actually be playing into the hands of Yanukovych, helping him to realize this scenario by forcing a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Azarov’s government. If such a vote of confidence receives majority support tomorrow (December 3), Azarov will remain acting Prime Minister until a new candidate for the post is submitted for confirmation by Parliament by the President. Such a candidacy is unlikely to be submitted while Yanukovych is in China, and therefore Azarov will continue to hold the office as a lame duck, but with full executive power over the police, and fully empowered to enact any (verbal) executive order received from the President.
Clearly neither of the above scenarios is appealing. However, both are more appealing than the prospect of a state of emergency that is increasingly talked about in the local press, and has in fact been called for by the Parliament of Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The world needs to realize that a state of emergency will inevitably lead to direct military intervention in Ukraine (likely first in Crimea) by Russia – an act that will lead to violent popular resistance throughout the western and central regions of the country. This would be the worst of all possible scenarios.
Unfortunately, the worst scenarios are also seen as the most likely given the current stand-off in Kyiv. The revolutionary movement on the streets is gaining momentum and strength over time. Only 1 day after the massive outpouring of support for change in Kyiv (almost ½ million people on the streets), food, warm clothing, and lodging for demonstrators are plentiful – all supplied by local benefactors. Holding down their fort in the center of Kyiv will not be a problem for the demonstrators.
But the would-be revolutionaries face an opponent who will not give up power peacefully or easily – thugs are not generally known for their kind-heartedness. During yesterday’s rally, Yuriy Lutsenko (one of the leaders of the current opposition movement) predicted a 5 day revolution – i.e. real change should be in the cards as soon as Yanukovych returns from his foreign visit. I wish I was as optimistic…
In any case, this ain’t over yet by a long shot!
Stay warm! And God help us!
Mychailo Wynnyckyj PhD
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
[ "Ukraine’s Revolution – Day 2 – The thug speaks" is the latest Facebook post by Mychailo Wynnyckyj (Associate Professor, PhD - Kyiv-Mohyla Academy), which offers insight and analysis into current events in Ukraine brought on by #Euromaidan and its various related precursors, happenings and occurrences. Mychailo was born and raised in Canada. He has been living and working in #Ukraine for many years now and is uniquely sagacious with respect to today's Ukrainian realities. He is able to relate to the reader in a unique way that will especially appeal to Westerners. Check out Mychailo's most recent posts in this blog's archive … http://uanews4enmedia.blogspot.com ]
